With some attractive prices in Leagues one and two on goals, we are opting for three outcomes to happen this weekend, rather than biting nails on two goals hoping for no more!
The three outcomes pay nearly 5/1 with BetVictor, although if backing singles, there is value pricing at other firms, so back the treble in this one only.
Crewe Vs Rochdale
The Railwaymen welcome a Rochdale side to Gresty Road whose away form is patchy, to say the least. Keith Hill’s Rochdale are half way between relegation and a late charge for the playoffs and a result either side of this match day could determine their intentions for the final stages of the season.
Crewe Alexandra led my Steve Davis are in all sorts of trouble, a place from the foot of League one and have not won in their last eight games. Part of their decline is their leaky defence where they have conceded at least one goal in nearly four from every five of their home games. Gresty Road has not been a happy place for the hosts having lost a small percentage more games than having avoiding defeat. The visitors are good for netting having scored at least one goal in each of their last eight games.
The hosts have to their credit made a concerted effort to battle relegation having drawn the last three games and will believe the game is for the taking. Crewe will need to build on their goal per game average to look at winning this and can open up the game playing a more fluid style and inflict the sort of damage that Rochdale’s last opponents did, conceding six goals to the mighty tykes.
The last two meetings have produced a goal fest with eleven goals in two matches, and this comes down to the style that both sides play, and bookmakers firmly believe on edging this game as well as us and expect this to pass the goal line with some ease.
Recommendation
Over 2.5 goals – 4/5
Gillingham Vs Swindon
Third place Gillingham look to potentially enter the automatic promotion position with a home win against a Swindon side who have been goal shy in their last two games.
Justin Edinburgh’s Gillingham have netted thirty-five points from a possible forty-two at the Priestfield Stadium. Luke Williams Swindon will have a tall task and with a below par away record so will find this a challenge especially that looking over their backs are a couple of wins between them and the relegation pack.
The Robins have been off the boil in the last couple of games after a spell with goals galore. Fair enough inundation of goals, in general, has been present and is more than capable despite being three games now without a win. Edinburgh’s most recent mini form has been steady with four points from the last nine, although for promotion pedigree will need to green a few more of their defeats out.
When looking at this fixture I did look at the goals scored versus goals conceded to determine probability and on balance edges on the over line here. To support this Two-thirds of Gillingham’s games had over two goals scored in total. The hosts have scored at least one goal in all but one of their home games this season.
Swindon can play on the fact that sixty-one percent of Gillingham’s conceded goals occurred in the first half, so striking early is their biggest weakness. However, William’s Swindon have conceded at least one goal in each of their last seven games making this a fair contender for both sides to net.
I do think the home side ill reign supreme but the critical strike force of the robins are more than capable of taking something from the game and have competent hotshots Nicky Ajose and Jonathan Obika with twenty-three goals between them this term.
To make a case for fewer than three goals on balance has a weaker case especially at the meagre price of evens, so over’s we go in this one.
Recommendation
Over 2.5 goals – 8/11
Northampton Vs York
Northampton host York at the Kassam Stadium where Chris Wilder’s men look to maintain the best home form in the division and welcome Jackie McNamara’s York with the second worst away form in the division. Top versus bottom entertains this League two fixture on Saturday as both teams are under pressure to perform.
Despite being at the foot of the football league Jackie McNamara’s York are on what could be called a turnaround having lost just twice in the last six. This included an injury time winner to Stevenage to leave them within four points of safety.
Northampton come into this with form having won their last 5 games, with no shortage of goals having scored at least one goal in each of their last twenty-three games and in all but one this season at home includes all of the last twelve. York’s conceding includes at least one goal in each of their last twenty-one games. Two-thirds of York’s games had over two goals scored in total which assists our bet here despite losing their last eleven away games.
Chris Wilder’s men look a force to be reckoned with especially at home and backing three or more in the game might need them to score all the goals, but have conceded in half their games at the Kassam this term. York may need to rely on Vadaine Oliver for goals with seven in the bank this season. At near evens for three or more goals versus the stats makes this a sensible play in statistical terms.
Recommendation
Over 2.5 goals – 17/20
