With the cold spell continuing, there is likely to be some fixtures called off by the time you read this. However, we have found a treble where all games to land three or more goals are all above evens giving us an adventure to give us mileage as nearly all firms are in excess of 8/1.
This week we are bringing back an old formula used on my blog, which is magic mark with the principle in backing three outcomes, but as three doubles and not the treble. Two correct on our pricing criteria will generate a profit. All three correct and its happy days!
Sunderland Vs Bournemouth
This game has the prospect where Big Sam needs to lead his Sunderland side to supremacy this weekend just to ease relegation woes. Eddie Howe’s south coast side can take the initiative and edge close to the forty point milestone which has proved a safety net in seasons gone by.
The Cherries are the compilers marginal favourites for the win here, whereas the Black Cats four places below are rated in excess of two-to-one for the home win. The price is perhaps representative that Allardyce’s men have the second worse record on their own turf, whereas Bournemouth are managing to average a point a game.
The real issue for this game is Sunderland’s inability to keep clean sheets. This season alone they have conceded in eighty-per cent of home games and with this run overall stretching to eight games in total. Both sides are weighed towards conceding but feel that both sides need to open up where simply a stalemate is out of the question, especially for Sunderland.
The hosts, despite their poor home record have been very light on goals at the stadium of light at both ends. This includes their failure to score in forty percent in front of their home fans. Time will begin to run out quickly for Allardyce’s men, and they do have the team spirit. The hosts have managed to win two of the last four at home. The visitor’s record is marginally better with just one defeat in the same period.
The fluid style of Bournemouth’s play should help both sides see action. With the momentum of the Cherries versus a side with the worse defence in the league, the determining factor here will be an early goal in the game. Paddy Power are evens for a goal set before the half hour mark. We think that a goal early on will set the presidency of this encounter. The Cherries could settle for the draw, but why not take out a vulnerable Sunderland? The outright doesn’t appeal, but both to net is a yes in my book, and one team to nip the winner.
Recommendation
Over 2.5 goals – 11/10 SkyBet
Bolton Vs MK Dons
The Trotters welcome the Dons to the Macron stadium, where both sides reigned supreme in their respective FA Cup matches in midweek. Karl Robinson’s men have a real chance of edging away from the relegation pack as they sit two places above the drop zone.
Neil Lennon’s Bolton being rock bottom with just two victories all season and it does not look like things are getting any better. With a winding up order approaching by Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs, the Bolton board had stated that all support staff may not be paid this month adding the pressure to the players to deliver.
With three successive defeats, netting just two goals and conceding eight, will Lennon’s men fold again this weekend? Robinson’s MK Dons have their own struggles in their debut year in the Championship and goals have been on their radar.
Neil Lennon despite financial troubles can motivate his men to give it their all, if not for the support staff then the paying fans being entertained. Bolton’s last three have seen goal feasts with all heading with three or more and five in the last eight. MK in the same period has seen four games head over.
With the chill factor and Bolton relying on generating points at home, MK Dons will look to overturn a dozen away games without a win. The Trotters should score against a leaky visiting side, and with three or more goals at 6/5 has a fair shot at coming in.
Recommendation
Over 2.5 goals – 6/5 888sport
Newport Vs Dagenham
This game features two sides at the wrong end of the football league, where the worse home side Dagenham face their neighbours in the form table Newport at Rodney Parade. The Daggers on the road have yielded considerably better with fifteen points from thirteen games. Newport seems to enjoy playing on the road also with nearly two-thirds of their points generating as the visiting side.
Since reappointing John Still in a third spell at Dagenham, John has changed the fortunes of his side, motivating them to win two on the spin away from home, before that was derailed with a narrow loss to title hopefuls Northampton. Still took no time from his dismissal from Luton to sign key defender Luke Guttridge who the gaffer described as influential in terms of quality and knowledge on the pitch being a valuable addition to their turnaround.
Newport more recently have been inconsistent scraping a valuable one goal win over York. Goals should be on the agenda in this one, as both sides have leaky defences with the visitors conceding in all but one this season. In addition Dagenham have netted in all but two on the road and were impressive with recent wins at Exeter and Stevenage. Newport has shipped plenty at home and has found the net in six of the last eight.
All of the last three respectively on three or more goals have landed and with renewed belief and confidence with the visitors, they will look to pull away from the relegation sides around them with a win. I can see either side looking for the winner with a one goal margin either way but more importantly both sides netting in this contest, thus three or more in the game is reasonable at evens or better.
Recommendation
Over 2.5 goals – 11/10 William Hill
Summary
Bet one – Over 2.5 goals at Sunderland and Newport – 4.20 Coral
Bet two – Over 2.5 goals at Sunderland and Bolton – 4.62 888sport
Bet three – Over 2.5 goals at Bolton and Newport – 4.41 William Hill and 888sport
