Some of the questions I’ve been asked the most are… How do you make your selections? What research do you do? What do you look out for?
Now I don’t mind divulging this information in the slightest. But there are a couple of things I just can’t write because there is no explanation for them. There’s a feel, a judgement, an experience that is impossible to share. Anyway, I’ll crack on.
Generally I’ll use all of these avenues, however it’s not possible for absolutely every game.
The basics
We all know Soccerway. Pretty much every punter uses it to source league tables, form, home record, away record etc. etc. That’s great. I do too. But there is a limit to what it can offer you.
The further down world football echelons you travel the more vague the information is. Nevertheless it’s a site that contains plenty off things you need. The things I use it for is:
- League positions
- Historical head to heads
- Player appearances/goals
Another site I like to use is Soccerstats.com. Mainly because I’m a bit of a statistics geek and love number crunching. This site is perfect to find statistics like:
- Goals percentages (scored/conceded)
- Streaks and sequences
- Probabilities of x amount of goals being scored
- Average amounts of time leading/drawing/losing
- much much more geekiness
Soccerstats really does offer almost everything when it comes to stats.
The extra detail
The devil is in the detail, and you need to create an edge by knowing more than the bookmakers. It’s fair to say that not much of an edge can be found in top flight Elite European football because all known information is literally thrust at us. I’m talking slightly lower level here.
Finding crucial team news is a massive edge. If you can get hold of injury/suspension information in good time, and even starting lineups – it all adds to a possible edge.
I scour Twitter for team news, official club websites for any kind of clues to setup/morale/tactics, fan forums for opinion, and local newspapers (online) for any pre game news and interviews.
Google translate is my best friend. It can get a little tricky at times… Have you ever tried translating Dutch to English? You have more chance of understanding the original text!
I am also in the fortunate position where I have a number of contacts from different countries that have access to information which is unlikely to be known to the masses. All handy stuff.
‘Obscure’ football
I don’t know how many times in the past people have contacted me, saying “You know absolutely nothing, how can you tip a game from the Sweden under 19 league without it being a complete guess?”. I really do have to laugh. This is just a reflection of what most punters must be the case.
These kind of games are liquid gold. IF YOU HAVE INFORMATION.
I remember a game a couple of seasons back I think. Pretty much half of an u19 team were experienced players. Either gaining fitness after an injury, or helping the plight of their youth counterparts. The game was evenly priced, obviously because the odds compilers were unaware of this.
Another time there was a sickness bug which swept through a team and most of the players taking part were borrowed from an under 21 squad.
I can give numerous examples of information that was not known by the masses. However, bookies soon take note when the money starts arriving… This is just to try and balance the books.
Summary
Betting research isn’t an exact science, and it doesn’t always pay off. But as I’ve mentioned before – used with a staking plan, bankroll management and discipline, this is the kind of work you need to put in to stay profitable.
How much you puts in decides how much you get out of this game. Pretty much like anything else. It’s not an easy living. It’s not free money. It’s been worked for in every sense of the word.
Remember… Feel free to get in touch on Twitter and ask any questions you may have. Even if it’s just to say that it’s a good read (or not). Cheers!