A potential minefield of dead rubber games this weekend?
Taking our advice last week, we suggested cashing out with the third outcome on the later kick off, and led to a tidy profit for the weekend. This week’s treble pays over 4/1 and this is with BetVictor.
Brentford Vs Fulham
Two sides on the west side of London meet one more time this season as all previous meetings has been feisty seeing three or more in all three meetings.
Brentford conceded at least one goal in eighteen of twenty-two at Griffin Park, so the away fans have rarely gone away without a celebration of a team goal. In this period, the last five has seen the travelling supporters get their monies worth with the bees leaking in all of the last five.
Fulham conceded at least one goal in each of their last dozen games with two-third heading over two goals scored in total. The cottagers though have been leaky at the back having conceded at least one goal in all but one on the road. Fulham has also conceded at least one goal in each of their last sixteen away games.
In the last eight, three or more has occurred in five of Dean Smith’s men’s games, whereas six of the last eight Slaviša Jokanović’s men has seen the same outcome weighting for the over line. Bookies imply there is a around a seventy-percent chance of both sides netting with any side bagging a second.
Both sides demonstrate an open style of play, with the likes of Ross McCormack firing in for the Cottagers whereas the Bees has enjoyed the contribution from Alan Judge holding the midfield role for the home side.
With the game with nothing to really play for, both sides have a bragging rights situation where both sides has the best both sides to net stats, some of the best offense stats and equally some of the worst defence stats gearing towards an open game with plenty of chances for goals. The hosts have a better home and away record, so Smith’s Brentford can use this advantage to seek out a final home game victory!
It must be mentioned that all three previous meetings have fired in an average of four goals a game with all three seeing the over line in the process.
Recommendation
Over 2.5 goals – 7/10 BetVictor
Burton Vs Gillingham
The Pirelli stadium will make host for a game important to both sides for different reasons. Nigel Clough’s Burton could close the gap on Wigan with two games to play and will almost certainly clinch promotion but not mathematically unless Walsall win their game as the sides have a goal difference of four goals in Clough’s favour.
Former Spurs defender Justin Edinburgh will lead his Medway Gillingham side knowing that a win could unseat Barnsley for the last play off position. Bradford are almost there with just two points required to seal their play off.
With such a tense game on offer, you have to consider not taking the over line. Some will think, the sides both need the win, but need to push, but the reality and mind of the bookie and odds compiler is that on the balance of probability the chances of an open game is far less likely. Nigel Clough’s men have the best defence in the division by a clear mile over their opponents and will use their fortress at home to play out a tight affair. This is where the tactics of the manager can try and control the destiny of the game and this is a perfect game to trade on.
Neither side are defeated in the last four home and away, although you could make a case for Clough’s men that they have drawn all of the last four at home, which could have scuppered their chance to be league champions. This is out of their hands, so considering promotion to the Championship is the new priority, although a slip up from Wigan will make the final day very interesting.
Gillingham has been effective on the road in the last four having drawn three and one victory. Both sides in the last six has seen two or fewer goals in their results and anticipate a cagey affair as both want the win, but think a point apiece could be the outcome.
Recommendation
Under 2.5 goals – 3/4 BetVictor
Dagenham Vs Crawley
Although the Daggers are down, Crawley, had they began their decline half a dozen games before could have been in relegation themselves
All of the three games previously contested has seen both sides net, so a good indicator for the weekend. The previous meeting saw a gripping five goal encounter with Crawley seeing home the winner, with the Daggers keen to repay the honour of the reverse fixture.
Both sides’ declines are mainly due to Dagenham conceded at least one goal in each of their last nine games at Victoria road but shockingly have conceded in all but four of their home games. Crawley’s downturn can turn recompense as the host have lost more than two-thirds of their home games this season to end the rout of six straight defeats.
With the downturn of both sides can give the opportunity for both to pocket a win in the respect of gaining some dressing room confidence. Being end of season will incur some changes Sadly for the hosts they will return to the Conference. My opinion is that the hosts will see out their final game in the football league with a scorcher. This could mean a cagey affair but think the latter and this is a perfect game for the hosts to take advantage of the opponents sudden decline!
Recommendation
Over 2.5 goals – 5/6 BetVictor
