After a tricky weekend’s action in the FA Cup and domestic league, we are back on the stats, tendencies and have three games where goals may be a premium.
Manchester United Vs Stoke
Manchester United are no team you can back with confidence where their main weakness is shots on target. United can turn this around after a convincing win against Derby on Friday night, where opponents Stoke will be quietly fancied to get something from the game.
Looking at the game in general, United have been relatively effective at home and sit sixth in the home form table. Stoke are sitting respectively in mid-table on the road, with Mark Hughes men looking to in some respects call a shock. We mention shock on name reputation, although United’s credibility has slackened since Fergie’s departure.
With Van Gaal at the end of his tether, having his resignation refused by the board questions that he knows when he is finished. Hughes Stoke can leech on the troubles at Old Trafford. United have to realistically turn their fortunes around as the Champions League final stages resume shortly and sit in fifth.
Where United have been effective is keeping clean sheets at home, with less than one in every four games on average conceding a goal. Stoke on the road have remained tight, netting just eleven goals and conceding just five more. The goal ratios are geared towards the unders here and no surprises with the lack of ambition from the United assault.
Van Gaal’s men have seen a little over one in three home games see more than two goals, with just one in three on average for the Potters. Four of eleven United games have ended goal-less with nearly half their games failing to score.
If Stoke are to capitalise, they will play a tight game and look to nick the game like Southampton did on their last Premier League game and at 5/1 in places to win, will attract some money. Team news suggests Michael Carrick could start after coming off the bench in their last game after a four-match absence with a knee injury. Bastian Schweinsteiger could be out for a month with knee problems.
Mark Hughes men will be without Marc Wilson is expected to be out for about three months after suffering a knee injury at the weekend with skipper Ryan Shawcross a doubt.
All in all, I do not expect this to be a cracker, but with both sides keeping it tight could be a fifth goal-less draw for the Red Devil’s if Hughes decides to set his men up to frustrate United.
Recommendation – Under 2.5 goals
Best price – 13/20 BetVictor
West Brom Vs Swansea
Tony Pulis’s West Brom will look to build on Premier League safety and will have this game earmarked where they can capture the home win. The Baggies host the Swans where Francesco Guidolin’s men will look for a third successive Premier League win.
With both sides with some breathing space from the relegation pack, they are looking over their shoulders as Swansea are four points off the drop and the hosts a further three points. When looking at goals for this game, I looked at the markets and reloaded. I did think, layers potentially have the prices wrong, but can see why they have tried to play safe.
I was expecting the lowest price for fewer than three goals to be no bigger than 4/7 – 6/10 but are as short as 2/5. This pricing is dissected on the team’s ability to score goals, but the near 19/10 for three or more goals is begging for some attention.
Both sides, not inundated with goals could be the value call to reverse the trend under the Hawthorn’s lights. In the last eight, the Baggies have played in five from eight heading over, with half chalking up for the swans. It is worth noting that Swansea has conceded in all but one on the road this season.
The last four at home has seen half for the Baggies land and three of the last four for Guidolin’s men. Pulis will need to think about letting his side attack to win the game and will have more confidence with veteran Darren Fletcher likely to make his return.
Swansea’s fortunes have altered since their new gaffer arrived and had made a couple of key signings, which could make their debut on Tuesday night.
All being said, bookies are playing safe on few goals here leaving the over’s vulnerable for attack and must be the call
Recommendation – Over 2.5 goals
Best price – 19/10 888sport
Sheffield Wednesday Vs Burnley
Wednesday will be looking to build on their excellent home form, where two-thirds of their points has been earned at Hillsborough. Carlos Carvalhal’s Wednesday will look to curtail Burnley’s winning streak of three matches as Sean Dyche’s men look to make it four successive wins.
With four straight wins and eleven unbeaten, Wednesday will be difficult opposition for Burnley. Boasting one of the best away records, this could be a feisty game, where goals have been no issue for either side.
With the visitors recording six of the last eight with over two goals, Wednesday has recorded this in half of their games including three of the last four at Hillsborough. Burnley has recorded a similar percentage in the last four away from home.
This game should see goals considering the Clarets have netted twenty goals in their last seven league games, scoring three or more goals in five of those matches.
Compilers have the under market well covered again and despite two strong sides coming together gives justification for edging the under line. However, both sides can feed off one another under the lights of Hillsborough with Sheffield Wednesday looking to avert on stats their bogey side Burnley having won just one of the last eight at home to Burnley!
Recommendation – Over 2.5 goals
Best price – 2.43 888sport
The treble pays a whopping 11.63/1 with 888sport and would recommend perming three doubles and one treble as a Trixie, where hopefully the above will give you some mileage entertainment for your Tuesday evening!
