After a weekend where we saw some less favoured results by punters, we enter the final match day in the Champions League! Some sides have something to play for, whereas others do not, so the emphasis of this could well done, who has the greater need?
Benfica Vs Atletico Madrid
When I looked at the table this is a must win for the hosts, as a draw will be enough for the visitors by virtue of goal difference. When looking at the prices, one outcome was too short with the other too big in my opinion and we are going for the latter.
When the sides met earlier in the campaign Benfica upset Simone’s men by ending their undefeated streak in the Champions League, which reigned back to 2009. The hosts came from behind to overcome the odds and it was not for its controversies in the crowd with flares.
The hosts will have the belief they can do the double over Atletico and will be well aware of the reputation of the visitors of keeping clean sheets. It is worth noting the only goals conceded in the five Champions League games, which was to Rui Vitória’s Benfica.
Looking at the way the game will go, it weighs heavily on the reputation of Atletico, where just one of the last six has gone beyond two goals. Benfica on the flip side have seen four of the last six head over, but all six have bagged at least two goals. My opinion on this is who wants to finish second? Compilers believe Atletico will play out this game in their typical strong style. Although my opinion is the 13/8 on offer for three or more is big considering the reverse fixture landed, and topping the group will avoid the likes of giants Barcelona, Real Madrid and Bayern in respect of the hosts.
Recommendation
Over 2.5 goals – 13/8 BetVictor
Sevilla Vs Juventus
The hosts have the chance of avoiding the wooden spoon and elimination from the Champions League with a win against Juventus. The Italian giants will need a result with a draw enough if Manchester City cannot over turn a two-goal difference to top the group.
The Italians have been efficient in their campaign netting just six goals, but conceding just two and won the reverse fixture by two goals to nil. Sevilla could get the chance to defend their Europa League title with third place but can only achieve this with a win and rely on Manchester City to beat their German counterparts Monchengladbach.
Unai Emery’s Sevilla side sitting in tenth place in La Liga have just four wins in the last ten including two in the last six. Juventus led by Massimiliano Allegri can use the Champions League as their stepping stone to getting back up towards the top of Serie A. The Italian giants have a reputation for tight games.
Looking at the way the game may go, Juventus have kept it tight conceding just twice and will look to hold another tight affair. The visitor s know how to run the clock down and anticipate the plan will be for another tight game, which holds the case of whether the Spanish hosts can break the Italian defence.
Anticipation of a low scorer here goes with the Champions League stats and find it difficult to make a case taking the over line when Juventus have shown time again why backing under with them turns punters a profit.
Recommendation
Under 2.5 goals – 7/9 888sport
Galatasaray Vs FC Astana
The Turkish giants led by Mustafa Denizli welcome Kazakhstan outfit fronted by Stanimir Stoilov where the winner will venture into the Europa League. A draw for the hosts will be enough. The debutants Astana have made a good account of themselves netting three draws from five games including netting a score draw two apiece in the reverse tie and remaining unbeaten at home.
With it all to play for, apart from the results against Atletico, Galatasaray’s other three games have all headed over two goals with the visitors generating a similar statistic. The downside to this game is that the Kazakhstan side have ended their domestic season four weeks ago. The Astana coach is optimistic of taking third despite being easy pickings to be ruled out for any better than fourth place.
A plus side though that Astana’s arrival in Istanbul over a week ago is a clear indication of how committed they are to keeping their European campaign alive. You can vision the side could look at this as being one of their biggest matches. This makes me turn to backing the overs with their winning attitude with one loss in the last six. With the last game ending with four goals, the indications are very much that the Turkish giants will look to curtail the Astana attack and could land up being an absolute thriller. In addition Galatasaray have won just once in the last six and with all at stake, I find it difficult making a case for the under line.
Recommendation
Over 2.5 goals – 13/15 888sport
